The market focuses on US non-farm payrolls data and the period when tariff exemptions expire on July 9. SHFE tin prices remain high and range-bound [SMM tin futures brief comment]

Daily Review of the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract:

​Intraday Trend: On July 3, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened at 269,000 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 269,980 yuan/mt and a low of 267,830 yuan/mt during the session. It closed at 268,420 yuan/mt, down by 880 yuan (a 0.33% decline), with a settlement price of 269,010 yuan/mt. Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volume stood at 57,264 lots, while open interest was 30,442 lots, a decrease of 923 lots from the previous day, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors.

​The market is focused on US non-farm payrolls data and the period when tariff exemptions expire on July 9. Bullish funds are cautious, and the intraday rebound is weak.

​Closing Quotes: The most-traded LME tin contract closed at $33,745/mt, up by $160 (a 0.48% increase), with an intraday fluctuation range of $33,150-$33,600.

​Macro Pressure: US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000. The US dollar index plunged and then rebounded, but market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September strengthened. LME tin is influenced by alternating US dollar fluctuations and risk appetite.

​Key Variables: If US non-farm payrolls data continues to be weak (especially in service sector employment), it may drive up expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut and boost tin prices. Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen the US dollar's pressure.

​Price Range: The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to oscillate within the range of 265,000-272,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, the support level is $32,500/mt, and the resistance level is $34,000/mt.